AI will significantly improve productivity, but its biggest impact on economies may still take years to materialise, according to Jim Reid, global head of macro and thematic research at Germany’s largest bank, Deutsche Bank. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Reid said history makes him optimistic about AI’s effect on jobs despite growing concerns over automation. He argued that every major technological breakthrough has raised fears about job losses, but those concerns have not been realised on a broad scale. Reid also said businesses will need time to fully integrate AI before its productivity benefits become clear.
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid on AI and jobs
Reid said his view on AI is shaped by economic history rather than short-term fears. “My view on AI and jobs is slightly skewed by what economic history tells us,” he said. “At every point of a new breakthrough in innovation, we’ve been really scared about jobs, about new technology destroying jobs, and it has never happened in aggregate.”According to a Bloomberg report, Reid believes AI will ultimately create jobs and improve productivity over the long term.
AI productivity gains will take time
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid said AI has greater productivity potential than any technology he has seen during his career.“In my career I haven’t seen anything like AI in terms of potential for productivity,” he said. “But I would probably caution that going to take a number of years for us to properly embed it into enterprises to really get the benefits of that.”He said companies will need time to integrate AI into everyday operations before seeing its full economic impact.
AI boom raises market questions
According to the Bloomberg report, investors are closely watching the rapid rise in semiconductor stocks and growing spending on AI infrastructure. Some policymakers have questioned whether the market is entering an AI bubble.Acknowledging the risk, Reid said: “There’s a risk obviously, when you see parabolic rises up, that at some point there’s a big tech bust.” Despite concerns over AI valuations, Reid pointed to centuries of technological progress. “But I would kind of go back to the fact that humans have been innovating for 250, 300 years since the Industrial Revolution,” he said. “We’ve been fantastic at innovating in that quarter of a millennium. We’ve only seen inflation go up.”
